AkashicLA-05 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 7%; raw Republican YES price 94%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Blake MiguezR | |
| Michael EcholsR | |
| Rick EdmondsR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: incumbent Julia Letlow (R) is running for U.S. Senate (announced Jan 20, 2026), not for re-election. Louisiana uses an OPEN all-party primary on Nov 3, 2026 (runoff Dec 12) under the new 2026 map (SB 121); the closed primary was suspended. Candidate qualifying is Aug 5-7, 2026, so the field is unsettled; several Republicans (and Democrats) had filed under the prior plan. Listed are prominent declared Republicans; treat as provisional pending re-qualification. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the LA-05 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+48 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+51 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+54 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+37 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+53 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →