AkashicUT-03 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Celeste MaloyRIncumbentNominee | |
| Kent UdellDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Primary held June 23, 2026. Due to court-ordered redistricting, sitting Rep. Celeste Maloy (R) — previously the UT-02 representative — now runs in (and is treated as the incumbent of) the new UT-03; she won the GOP primary (~66%) over former state Rep. Phil Lyman. Kent Udell is the Democratic nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the UT-03 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+42 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+40 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+47 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+50 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →