AkashicKY-06 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win71%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 72% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ralph AlvaradoRNominee | |
| Zach DemboDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Andy Barr (R) is NOT running for re-election in KY-06; he ran for and won the GOP nomination for the open U.S. Senate seat (McConnell retiring). Central Kentucky (Lexington). KY primary was May 19, 2026 (held). Ralph Alvarado (R, former state senator/physician, Trump-endorsed) won the GOP primary ~57% over Ryan Dotson. Zach Dembo (D, former federal prosecutor) won the Democratic primary ~40% over Cherlynn Stevenson. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the KY-06 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+26 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+22 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →