AkashicWI-01 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 66% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 8-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Bryan SteilRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Mitchell BermanD | |
| Peter BurgelisD | not yet filing |
| Miguel ArandaD | not yet filing |
| Lorenzo SantosD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. SE Wisconsin (Racine/Kenosha). Incumbent Bryan Steil (R) running, unopposed in GOP primary. WI partisan primary is Aug 11, 2026 (not yet held); June 1 filing deadline passed so ballot is locked. Contested 4-way Democratic primary; Mitchell Berman is the fundraising leader but no consensus frontrunner, so all D listed as 'candidate'. STALE-DATA NOTE: Randy Bryce (2018 nominee) and Peter Barca did NOT file by the deadline and are excluded. ~R+2. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WI-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+9 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →