AkashicGA-14 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Shawn HarrisDNominee | |
| Clay FullerRIncumbentNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Former incumbent Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) resigned effective January 5, 2026 and is NOT on the ballot. Clay Fuller (R) won the April 7 special election to fill the remainder of the term and is now the sitting representative; he then won the May 19 GOP primary for the full term with ~81%. He faces Democrat Shawn Harris (the special-election runner-up) in the November general. Not an open seat for November since Fuller now holds it as incumbent. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the GA-14 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+49 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+53 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →