Akashic2026 forecast
MA-06 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Safe D
96%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
Akashic modelDemocratic 96%MarketDemocratic 94%agree · 2 pts in line
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Total volume
$21k
Liquidity
$40k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Dan KohD | |
| John BecciaD | |
| Tram NguyenD | |
| Rick JakiousD | |
| Micah JonesR | |
| Bethany Andres-BeckD |
The substrate
2024 baseline
D+20.3
2024 result
D+20.3
Seat held by
Democratic
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MA-06 place page.
Recent elections · U.S. House · MA-06
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+73 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+27 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+31 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+34 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+98 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →