Akashic2026 forecast
AL-02 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Likely R
83%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 69% chance to win.
Akashic modelRepublican 83%MarketRepublican 69%agree · 15 pts apart
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 15-point gap.
Total volume
$38k
Liquidity
$8k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Apr 29, 2026
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Rhett MarquesR | |
| Shomari FiguresDIncumbent | |
| Joshua McKeeR | |
| Hampton HarrisR | |
| Christian HornR | not yet filing |
| David MatthewsR | not yet filing |
The substrate
2024 baseline
R+14.3
2024 result
R+14.3
Seat held by
Democratic
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AL-02 place page.
Recent elections · U.S. House · AL-02
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+40 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →