AkashicNY-12 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 96%; raw Republican YES price 3%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Micah LasherDNominee | |
| Caroline ShinkleRNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Democrat Jerry Nadler is not running for re-election. State Assemblymember Micah Lasher won the crowded Democratic primary (field included Alex Bores, George Conway, Jack Schlossberg); he faces Republican Caroline Shinkle. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NY-12 place page.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →