AkashicMT-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 61% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 19-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Sam ForstagDNominee | |
| Aaron FlintRNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Ryan Zinke (R) announced March 2, 2026 he would not seek re-election. Primary held June 2, 2026. Trump-backed conservative radio host Aaron Flint won the GOP primary; Sam Forstag (smokejumper/union leader, backed by Sanders) won the Democratic primary over Ryan Busse. Western Montana (Missoula, Bozeman, Kalispell). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MT-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 1990 | DemocraticD | D+22 |
| 1988 | DemocraticD | D+22 |
| 1986 | DemocraticD | D+23 |
| 1984 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →