AkashicMI-11 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jeremy MossD | |
| Anil KumarIndependent | |
| Aisha FarooqiD | |
| Ethan BakerR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Haley Stevens (D) is not seeking re-election, running for U.S. Senate. Democratic-leaning Oakland County seat; Aug 4 primary not yet held. Democratic primary led by state Sen. Jeremy Moss (endorsed by Gov. Whitmer, AG Nessel) over Aisha Farooqi and others (John Torres, Don Ufford). Ethan Baker (mayor of Troy) is the presumptive Republican nominee. Anil Kumar, a former Democrat, is running as an independent. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MI-11 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+19 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+23 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+2 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →