AkashicFL-11 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 85% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Carey BakerR |
| Joe StradaR |
| Nizam RazackR |
| Dan WilliamsD |
| Ralph GrovesLibertarian |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Daniel Webster (R) withdrew from the race on April 28, 2026 (retiring). Crowded GOP primary (also Ivette Palomo, Tim Wilkins; Anthony Sabatini withdrew) in a strongly Republican seat; nominee undetermined until Aug 18. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-11 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+28 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+30 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →