AkashicFL-01 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jimmy PatronisRIncumbent | |
| Gay ValimontD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Patronis won the April 2025 special election to succeed Matt Gaetz; he is the sitting incumbent. He faces a contested GOP primary (Douglas Chico, John Frankman) but is the presumptive nominee. Valimont (the 2024/2025 Democratic nominee) is the presumptive Democratic nominee. FL primary not yet held (Aug 18, 2026). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+36 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+38 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →