AkashicCA-03 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ami BeraDNominee | |
| Robb TuckerRNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Prop 50 redistricting scramble: this district's incumbent, Kevin Kiley (who left the GOP to register No Party Preference), is running in the redrawn CA-06 instead. Ami Bera, the sitting incumbent of CA-06, is running here; he is an incumbent of a different district, not of CA-03. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CA-03 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+11 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+19 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →