Akashic2026 forecast
VA-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Tilt D
58%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 56% chance to win.
Akashic modelDemocratic 58%MarketDemocratic 56%agree · 2 pts in line
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Total volume
$21k
Liquidity
$12k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Rob WittmanRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Shannon TaylorD | |
| Jason KnappD | |
| Salaam BhattiD | |
| Mel TullD | |
| Elizabeth Dempsey BeggsD |
The substrate
2024 baseline
R+4.9
2024 result
R+4.9
Seat held by
Republican
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the VA-01 place page.
Recent elections · U.S. House · VA-01
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →