AkashicTN-06 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Van HillearyR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent John Rose (R) is not running (running for governor). Aug 6 primary not yet held; the GOP primary is contested (former Rep. Van Hilleary, state Rep. Johnny Garrett, Jon Henry, Natisha Brooks) with no clear nominee yet — Hilleary listed as a leading candidate. Democratic primary also contested (Chaney Mosley, Mike Croley, Lore Bergman, Miriam Leibowitz, Christopher Martin Finley). Likely-Republican seat. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TN-06 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+36 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+50 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+41 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+49 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+48 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →