AkashicOH-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 83% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Greg LandsmanDIncumbentNominee | |
| Eric ConroyRNominee | |
| John HancockLibertarianNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Cincinnati-based seat redrawn to be more Republican-friendly for 2026 (Trump would have carried it by ~3 pts). Landsman (incumbent, re-elected 54.6% in 2024) won the Democratic primary; Conroy won the Republican primary; Hancock won the Libertarian primary. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OH-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+18 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →