AkashicOH-05 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 93% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 10-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Bob LattaRIncumbentNominee | |
| Brian ShaverDNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Safe Republican northwestern Ohio seat. Latta (incumbent, 67.5% in 2024) unopposed in primary; Shaver won a four-way Democratic primary. (A Libertarian write-in, Michael J. Veloff, won that minor primary line with 25 votes but is not in the general-election field.) The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OH-05 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+36 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+27 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+42 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →