AkashicWI-02 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Mark PocanDIncumbent | |
| Douglas AlexanderD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Safe Democratic Madison-based seat; Aug 11 primary not yet held. Pocan (incumbent, 70.1% in 2024) is the heavy favorite, facing only minor Democratic primary challenger Douglas Alexander. No Republican filed by the June 1 deadline per WXOW (June 3, 2026); the 2022/2024 GOP nominee Erik Olsen filed but withdrew. (Ballotpedia still lists Olsen as a general candidate, but Wikipedia/FEC indicate his withdrawal — hence the no-Republican note.) The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WI-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+40 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+44 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+39 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+97 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+38 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+37 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →