AkashicNH-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 87% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 9-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Maura SullivanD | |
| Stefany ShaheenD | |
| Hollie NoveletskyR | |
| Carleigh BeriontD | |
| Heath HowardD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Chris Pappas (D) is running for the U.S. Senate. Primary Sept 8, 2026 (not yet held), so candidates are contenders, not nominees. Crowded Democratic field; Maura Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen are leading contenders (Beriont, Howard, others also running). Hollie Noveletsky leads the Republican field. Competitive southeastern NH seat (Manchester/Seacoast). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NH-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →