AkashicMI-07 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 67% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 16-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Tom BarrettRIncumbent | |
| Matt MaasdamD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Competitive Lansing-area seat; Aug 4 primary not yet held. Barrett (incumbent) flipped the seat with 50.3% in 2024 and is the presumptive GOP nominee. Democratic primary is contested among Matt Maasdam, Bridget Brink (former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine), and William Lawrence; no settled Democratic nominee, so the listed Democrat is one of several contenders. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MI-07 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+18 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+15 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →