AkashicUT-04 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Mike KennedyRNominee | |
| Jonny LarsenDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: the sitting representative of this seat, Burgess Owens (R), announced he would not seek re-election after court-ordered redistricting. Primary held June 23, 2026. Sitting Rep. Mike Kennedy (R) — previously the UT-03 representative, redrawn into UT-04 — is the GOP nominee (incumbent=false because he is not the incumbent of THIS seat). Jonny Larsen is the Democratic nominee. Safe-Republican. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the UT-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | even |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →