AkashicMI-12 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Rashida TlaibDIncumbent | |
| Byron NolenD | not yet filing |
| James HooperR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Safe Democratic seat (northern Wayne County, Dearborn, Southfield); Aug 4 primary not yet held. Tlaib (incumbent, 69.7% in 2024) faces a Democratic primary challenge from Inkster Mayor Byron Nolen (Ballotpedia also lists Allen Downer and Shanelle Jackson in the Democratic primary). James D. Hooper, the 2024 GOP nominee, is the presumptive Republican nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MI-12 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+44 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+45 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+36 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+39 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+35 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →