AkashicSD-AL — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 96% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Marty JackleyRNominee | |
| Nicole GronliDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Dusty Johnson (R) did not seek re-election (ran for governor). Primary held June 2, 2026 (SD requires a July 28 runoff only if no candidate clears 35%). Attorney General Marty Jackley won the GOP primary decisively (~79%), so no runoff. Nicole Gronli (known as Nikki) is the Democratic nominee (ran effectively unopposed). Safe-Republican statewide seat. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the SD-AL place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+77 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+81 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+28 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →