AkashicPA-04 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Madeleine DeanDIncumbentNominee | |
| Aurora StuskiRNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Montgomery County-based seat. Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean vs Republican Aurora Stuski. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the PA-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+18 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+23 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+19 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+27 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →