Akashic2026 forecast
AZ-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Likely D
83%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 73% chance to win.
Akashic modelDemocratic 83%MarketDemocratic 73%agree · 11 pts apart
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 11-point gap.
Total volume
$5k
Liquidity
$4k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jonathan TrebleD | |
| Jay FeelyR | |
| Marlene Galán-WoodsD | |
| Amish ShahD | |
| Rick McCartneyD | |
| John TroboughR |
The substrate
2024 baseline
R+3.1
2024 result
R+3.1
Seat held by
Republican
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AZ-01 place page.
Recent elections · U.S. House · AZ-01
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+3 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →