AZ-01 — U.S. House

Name: AZ-01 — U.S. House — 2026 forecast — ratings + simulated seat distribution
Creator: Akashic
License: https://akashic.app/LICENSE.txt

The call

Likely D

We expect Democratic to win — 86%.

RatingLikely D

Win probabilityD 86%

Predicted margin—

The substrate

2024 baselineR+3.1

2024 resultR+3.1

Seat held byRepublican

The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AZ-01 place page.

On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →