Akashic2026 forecast
FL-02 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Safe R
96%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 88% chance to win.
Akashic modelRepublican 96%MarketRepublican 88%agree · 8 pts apart
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 8-point gap.
Total volume
$12k
Liquidity
$25k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Keith GrossR | |
| Austin RogersR | |
| Evan PowerR | |
| Nic ZatesloD | |
| Jim NortonR | |
| Amanda GreenD |
The substrate
2024 baseline
R+18.1
2024 result
R+18.1
Seat held by
Republican
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-02 place page.
Recent elections · U.S. House · FL-02
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+20 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+98 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+37 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →