AkashicUT-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ben McAdamsDNominee | |
| Riley OwenRNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT created by court-ordered redistricting: the new UT-01 is Democratic-leaning and has no sitting incumbent running in it (former UT-01 incumbent Blake Moore (R) moved to UT-02). Primary held June 23, 2026. Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams (D) won the Democratic primary (~56%) over state Sen. Nate Blouin; Riley Owen is the Republican nominee. Democrats' best Utah pickup opportunity. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the UT-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+34 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+39 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+37 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+39 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →