AkashicNV-02 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 77% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 6-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| David FlippoRNominee | |
| Teresa Benitez-ThompsonDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Mark Amodei (R) is RETIRING (announced ~Feb 6, 2026 after 15 years); not on the ballot. Northern/rural Nevada (Reno). Nevada primary was June 9, 2026 (held). David Flippo (R, Trump-backed retired USAF Lt. Col.) won the GOP primary, DEFEATING Amodei/Lombardo-endorsed James Settelmeyer by 10+ pts — note the nominee is Flippo, NOT Settelmeyer. Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D, former Assembly leader; note hyphenation) won the Democratic primary. Nevada's only previously GOP-held House seat, now competitive open race. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NV-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+55 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+22 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →