AkashicCA-14 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 98% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Aisha WahabDNominee | |
| Melissa HernandezDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: incumbent Eric Swalwell (D) did not seek re-election (he ran for governor, suspended that campaign April 12, 2026 amid misconduct allegations, then resigned from Congress April 14). The regular June 2 primary still produced a Democrat-vs-Democrat general between Melissa Hernandez and Aisha Wahab. A separate special election (special primary June 16; special general runoff Aug 18) is filling the unexpired term, also Hernandez vs. Wahab. Under the state’s top-two primary, the two highest finishers advance regardless of party — here both are of the same party. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CA-14 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+36 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+39 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+59 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+58 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+62 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+53 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →