AkashicAZ-06 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 82% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| JoAnna MendozaD | |
| Juan CiscomaniRIncumbent |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Juan Ciscomani (R) seeking re-election in competitive southern AZ seat. JoAnna Mendoza (Marine veteran, DCCC Red-to-Blue) is the qualified Democrat. Kirsten Engel (2022/2024 nominee) is NOT running in 2026. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AZ-06 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →