AkashicPA-03 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 98% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Chris RabbDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Democrat Dwight Evans is retiring (announced 2025, did not run). State Rep. Chris Rabb won the May 19 Democratic primary, defeating Ala Stanford and state Sen. Sharif Street. No Republican qualified for the ballot (Alex Schnell failed to qualify); Rabb is effectively unopposed by a major party in this safe-D Philadelphia seat (described as the nation's bluest House district). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the PA-03 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+95 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+82 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+87 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →