Akashic2026 forecast
WI-07 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Likely R
83%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 88% chance to win.
Akashic modelRepublican 83%MarketRepublican 88%agree · 4 pts in line
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Total volume
$34k
Liquidity
$30k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Kevin HermeningR | |
| Michael AlfonsoR | |
| Jessi EbbenR | |
| Fred ClarkD | |
| Ginger MurrayD | |
| Chris ArmstrongD |
The substrate
2024 baseline
R+22.5
2024 result
R+22.5
Seat held by
Republican
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WI-07 place page.
Recent elections · U.S. House · WI-07
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+27 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+22 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+22 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →