AkashicPA-10 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 79% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Janelle StelsonDNominee | |
| Scott PerryRIncumbentNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Harrisburg/York. Incumbent Scott Perry (R) won GOP primary unopposed. Janelle Stelson (D, former WGAL anchor and 2024 nominee who lost to Perry by ~1 pt) won the May 19 Democratic primary decisively over Justin Douglas, setting up a 2024 Perry-Stelson rematch. Nationally watched toss-up. Two minor independents (Isabelle Harman, Steven Long) reported on the general ballot but omitted as minor. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the PA-10 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+40 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →