AkashicOH-07 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 63% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Democrats, our model to the Republicans — a 21-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Max MillerRIncumbentNominee | |
| Brian PoindexterDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Competitive seat (exurban Cleveland to north-central Ohio); Miller is the incumbent here (re-elected 51.1% in 2024 in the prior district) after redistricting renumbering. Miller unopposed in GOP primary; Poindexter won a crowded Democratic primary over Ed FitzGerald and others. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OH-07 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+15 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+11 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+38 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →