AkashicMO-06 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Matt LevineD | |
| Chris StigallR | not yet filing |
| Nathan WillettR | not yet filing |
| James IngramR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Sam Graves (R), in office since 2001, is retiring. Solid/Likely R. Republican primary frontrunners: radio host Chris Stigall (Graves-endorsed) and Kansas City Council member Nathan Willett (others incl. James Ingram, Cody Oshel, Nathanael Schultz). Democratic contenders include Matt Levine, Scot Pondelick, and Josh Smead. Primary not yet held. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MO-06 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+43 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+36 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+40 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+37 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →