AkashicNJ-11 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Analilia MejiaDIncumbentNominee | |
| Joe HathawayRNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia, who won the April 2026 special election after Mikie Sherrill resigned to become Governor of New Jersey, won the June 2 primary for a full term; faces Republican Joe Hathaway (Randolph councilman, ran uncontested in primary). Treated as incumbent (sitting representative of this district), not an open seat. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NJ-11 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+15 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+19 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+15 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →