AkashicWA-05 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win71%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 79% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 8-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Michael BaumgartnerRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Carmela ConroyD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Eastern Washington (Spokane). Incumbent Michael Baumgartner (R, elected 2024 after Cathy McMorris Rodgers retired) running for re-election. Washington uses a TOP-TWO primary on Aug 4, 2026 (not yet held); the top two finishers regardless of party advance. Crowded field (~9-13 candidates). Carmela Conroy (D, Spokane County Dem chair, 2024 runner-up) is the leading Democrat and likely to be the second general-election finisher behind Baumgartner. Both listed pending the top-two result. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WA-05 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →