AkashicIA-03 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win71%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 67% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Zach NunnRIncumbent | |
| Sarah Trone GarriottD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Zach Nunn (R) running for re-election; Sarah Trone Garriott is the Democratic nominee. Iowa primary held June 2, 2026. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the IA-03 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+2 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →