AkashicCA-40 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
No prediction market is trading CA-40 — U.S. House yet.
When a liquid two-party market opens on Polymarket for this race, its implied odds will appear here beside our model. We show only real market prices — never an estimated one.
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Young KimRIncumbentNominee | |
| Ken CalvertRNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Rare Republican-vs-Republican general between two sitting incumbents. Young Kim is the incumbent of this district. Ken Calvert is the incumbent of CA-41, whose seat Prop 50 redrew to favor Democrats, prompting him to run here instead; he is an incumbent of a different district, not of CA-40. Under the state’s top-two primary, the two highest finishers advance regardless of party — here both are of the same party. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CA-40 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+11 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+45 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+77 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+71 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →