AkashicNE-02 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 86% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Denise PowellDNominee | |
| Brinker HardingRNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Don Bacon (R) announced June 30, 2025 he would not seek re-election. Primary held May 12, 2026. Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding (Trump-endorsed) won the GOP primary essentially unopposed; Denise Powell won a competitive six-way Democratic primary, defeating state Sen. John Cavanaugh by ~2 points (AP-called). This is the competitive Omaha 'blue dot' swing district (Harris 2024, Biden 2020). Prior Democratic nominee Tony Vargas did not run in 2026. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NE-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+5 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →