AkashicWA-09 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 93%; raw Republican YES price 7%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Adam SmithDIncumbentNominee | |
| Doug BaslerRNominee | not yet filing |
| Kshama SawantIndependent (Workers Strike Back) | |
| Melissa ChaudhryD | not yet filing |
| Janis ClarkR | not yet filing |
| C. Mark GreeneR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Top-two primary 2026-08-04 (two advance regardless of party). Incumbent Adam Smith (D) in safe-D Seattle/SeaTac seat. Notable left challenger Kshama Sawant (former Seattle city councilmember, running Independent/Workers Strike Back). Given the D lean, the general could pit Smith vs. Sawant or another non-Republican. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WA-09 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+98 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+43 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+48 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+46 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+42 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →