AkashicFL-22 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 59% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 17-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Pia DandiyaD | |
| Belinda KeiserR | not yet filing |
| Casey AskarR | not yet filing |
| Terri HasdorffR | not yet filing |
| Kaysia EarleyD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Effectively open under the 2026 mid-decade map: FL-22 incumbent Lois Frankel (D) is running in the redrawn FL-23 instead, so no sitting FL-22 representative is on this ballot. Crowded GOP primary (also David Burck, Michael Carbonara, Richard Evans, Michael Thompson) for the reconfigured, more competitive seat; nominees undetermined until Aug 18. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-22 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+17 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+18 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →