AkashicTexas — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 86% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 10-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Greg AbbottRIncumbentNominee |
| Gina HinojosaDNominee |
| Pat DixonLibertarianNominee |
Declared candidates. Not an open seat: Texas has no term limits; incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is seeking a 4th term and won the GOP primary (~82%). State Rep. Gina Hinojosa won the 9-way Democratic primary outright on March 3 (~59%) - no runoff was needed. Beto O'Rourke, James Talarico, and Colin Allred did NOT run for governor. Pat Dixon is the Libertarian nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TX state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | AbbottR | R+11 |
| 2018 | AbbottR | R+13 |
| 2014 | Greg AbbottR | R+20 |
| 2010 | Rick PerryR | R+13 |
| 2006 | Rick PerryR | R+9 |
| 2002 | Rick PerryR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | Apr 10–20 | 1,200 RV | Abbott 44·Hinojosa 38 | R+6 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Apr 17–20 | 1,018 LV | Abbott 48·Hinojosa 43 | R+5 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →