AkashicOregon — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 85% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 11-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Tina KotekDIncumbentNominee |
| Christine DrazanRNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek (D) is seeking a second term and won the Democratic primary (~84%). Christine Drazan, the 2022 GOP nominee, won the Republican primary (~41%) over Ed Diehl and Chris Dudley, setting up a 2022 rematch (Oregon's first gubernatorial rematch since 1978). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OR state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tina KotekD | D+3 |
| 2018 | Kate BrownD | D+6 |
| 2014 | John KitzhaberD | D+6 |
| 2010 | John KitzhaberD | D+2 |
| 2006 | Ted KulongoskiD | D+8 |
| 2002 | Ted KulongoskiD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →