AkashicHawaii — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Josh GreenDIncumbentPresumptive |
| Gary CorderyR |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Josh Green (D) is running for re-election to a second term and is the heavy favorite/presumptive nominee (rated Safe/Solid D); he faces only minor Democratic primary opposition. The Aug 8 primary has not occurred. Republicans are not seriously contesting; Gary Cordery and Ken Fujiyama are minor GOP candidates with no clear frontrunner. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the HI state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Josh Luke GreenD | D+26 |
| 2018 | Ige / GreenD | D+29 |
| 2014 | David IgeD | D+12 |
| 2010 | Neil AbercrombieD | D+17 |
| 2006 | Linda LingleR | R+27 |
| 2002 | Linda LingleR | R+5 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →