AkashicIllinois — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| JB PritzkerDIncumbentNominee |
| Darren BaileyRNominee |
| Collin CorbettIndependent |
Declared candidates. Incumbent JB Pritzker (D) won the March 17 primary unopposed and is seeking a third term. Darren Bailey (2022 GOP nominee, former state senator) won the Republican primary (~53%). Independent Collin Corbett (former GOP strategist) is also a general-election candidate. Race rated Safe/Solid D. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the IL state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Jb PritzkerD | D+13 |
| 2018 | Jb PritzkerD | D+16 |
| 2014 | Bruce RaunerR | R+4 |
| 2010 | Pat QuinnD | D+1 |
| 2006 | Rod BlagojevichD | D+39 |
| 2002 | Rod BlagojevichD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →