AkashicNebraska — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 85% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 11-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Jim PillenRIncumbentNominee |
| Lynne WalzDNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Gov. Jim Pillen (R), first elected 2022, is not term-limited and won the GOP primary (~75-76%). Former state senator Lynne Walz won the Democratic primary (~91%); no relation to Minnesota's Tim Walz. A Legal Marijuana NOW candidate (Rick Beard) also won that party line per Wikipedia but is single-sourced and omitted from the confirmed major-candidate list. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NE state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Jim PillenR | R+23 |
| 2018 | Pete Ricketts And Mike FoleyR | R+18 |
| 2014 | Pete RickettsR | R+18 |
| 2010 | Dave HeinemanR | R+48 |
| 2006 | Dave HeinemanR | R+49 |
| 2002 | Mike JohannsR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD | Apr 6–7 | 670 RV | Pillen 38·Walz 33 | R+5 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →