AkashicWisconsin — Governor
We expect Democrats to win71%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 56% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 15-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Tom TiffanyRPresumptive |
| Mandela BarnesD |
| Sara RodriguezD |
| David CrowleyD |
| Kelda RoysD |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D) announced July 2025 he would not seek a third term. Aug 11 2026 primary not yet held. The Democratic field is large and genuinely wide-open (Mandela Barnes, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Exec David Crowley, state Sen. Kelda Roys, plus Francesca Hong and Joel Brennan) with no clear front-runner. U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany is the clear Republican front-runner (Trump-endorsed). Note: Bill Berrien withdrew (2025); Eric Hovde never entered; Rebecca Cooke is a U.S. House candidate, not a gubernatorial candidate. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WI state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tony EversD | D+3 |
| 2018 | Tony EversD | D+1 |
| 2014 | Scott WalkerR | R+6 |
| 2010 | Scott WalkerR | R+6 |
| 2006 | Jim DoyleD | D+7 |
| 2002 | Jim DoyleD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →