AkashicIdaho — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 96% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Brad LittleRIncumbentNominee |
| Terri PickensDNominee |
| John StegnerIndependent |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Brad Little (R) won the May 19 primary (~59%) for a third term; Democrat Terri Pickens won her primary (~61%). Notable independent: retired Idaho Supreme Court Justice John Stegner is a confirmed general-election candidate (strong fundraising). Minor general-election candidates also include a Libertarian, an independent, and a Constitution Party candidate. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the ID state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Brad LittleR | R+40 |
| 2018 | Brad LittleR | R+22 |
| 2014 | Butch OtterR | R+15 |
| 2010 | Butch OtterR | R+26 |
| 2006 | Butch OtterR | R+9 |
| 2002 | Dirk KempthorneR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →