AkashicSouth Carolina — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 91% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Alan WilsonRNominee |
| Jermaine JohnsonDNominee |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is term-limited (capitalization: McMaster) - first open SC governor's race since 2010. The crowded GOP primary (June 9) went to a June 23 2026 runoff, which Attorney General Alan Wilson won over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (~66-34), defeating the candidate Trump backed late. State Rep. Jermaine Johnson won the Democratic primary outright June 9 (~58%). Both nominees set. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the SC state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Henry McMasterR | R+17 |
| 2018 | Henry McMaster / Pamela EvetteR | R+8 |
| 2014 | Nikki HaleyR | R+14 |
| 2010 | Nikki HaleyR | R+5 |
| 2006 | Mark SanfordR | R+10 |
| 2002 | Mark SanfordR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →