AkashicSouth Carolina — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 9%; raw Republican YES price 92%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Alan WilsonRNominee |
| Jermaine JohnsonDNominee |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is term-limited (capitalization: McMaster) - first open SC governor's race since 2010. The crowded GOP primary (June 9) went to a June 23 2026 runoff, which Attorney General Alan Wilson won over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (~66-34), defeating the candidate Trump backed late. State Rep. Jermaine Johnson won the Democratic primary outright June 9 (~58%). Both nominees set. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →